There is nothing inevitable about a Russian victory in Ukraine. The narrative that Russia has, to quote President Trump, “all the cards,” and that Ukraine must make big territorial concessions in order to avoid even worse losses, has dominated negotiations so far. But at this point in the war, it’s fair to ask: If Russia has all the cards, why has it achieved so little? Why has its progress been so often frustrated by a much smaller army’s resilience and innovative tactics, as well as its own operational weaknesses?