The OBR’s projected decline in borrowing relies on taxes climbing to a post-second world war high by 2030-31 and departmental spending shrinking as a share of GDP after 2027-28. That means real pressure on household budgets and public services unless growth outperforms expectations. Hardly a vote winner. It also means that if nothing is done to cushion the blow of sustained higher energy prices, economic growth will likely weaken or inflation will rise. Given the geopolitical turmoil, it’s hardly surprising that the OBR warns that defence spending will have to rise. Ms Reeves says fiscal credibility matters. But it will ring hollow if, as the Joseph Rowntree Foundation warns, real incomes fall between this April and 2029.