Was the onset of this war a surprise? We now know, thanks to a deeply reported article by the Guardian’s central and eastern Europe correspondent, Shaun Walker, that both the CIA and MI6 had amassed troves of deep intelligence about the impending war and were issuing dire notices to their allies about the inevitability of an invasion by Putin. Those warnings were all but ignored in key European capitals. Why? In large part because US and British intelligence were considered untrustworthy after the extraordinary intelligence debacle in the run-up to the 2003 invasion of Iraq.