Washington’s objectives are less clear. At different moments, US officials have framed the war as an effort to destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities, weaken its military and proxies, or pave the way for regime change led by the people. These are very different goals that point to very different endgames. With no coherent strategy and as the war’s costs grow, a more recognisable outcome is emerging. Iran could come to resemble Iraq after the 1990-91 Gulf war: a country militarily defeated and economically debilitated yet still governed by a reconstituted form of the same regime.