This time, the fallback fuel is unlikely to get quite so expensive, even if hostilities in the Middle East are more prolonged than hoped. It is true that the sharp increase in natural gas prices — if sustained over time — is already sufficient to make generating electricity from coal cheaper, giving European countries an economic incentive to switch. But some plants have been phased out for good: the UK closed its last one in 2024. Overall, the amount of available coal-fired power generation capacity in Europe has fallen by about 40 per cent, estimates ICIS, although some may be clawed back in an emergency.