The consensus expectation is still that the war will be short — a month at most. If that’s right, the drag on growth from higher oil prices should be small. Analysts are expecting US GDP to be reduced by just a few tenths of a percentage point. The impact on consumer inflation would be modest, too: energy accounts for only about 6 per cent of the consumer price index, though that impact is spread very unevenly among households. And because the US is now an energy exporter, it is relatively well hedged compared to Asian and European economies. As EY-Parthenon’s Gregory Daco points out, high prices might be a stimulus for shale production, offsetting the hit to consumption.