This didn’t begin with fraud. It began with interest-rate risk. When the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy in 2022, long-duration assets fell in value. My colleagues and I estimate that this resulted in roughly $2tn of unrealised losses through early 2023 — broadly equal to the banking system’s equity buffer. US banks had roughly $9tn in uninsured deposits — pure flight risk when doubts rise. That’s how you get solvency runs even on liquid assets: rates jump, asset values fall, uninsured money runs, and losses that were “unrealised” suddenly become real. Silicon Valley Bank alone saw $42bn withdrawn in hours and an additional $100bn queued for the next day.