The affable, backslapping, three-time gubernatorial candidate is running not far behind Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill in the polls heading into Tuesday’s closely watched election. He nearly pulled off an upset in his 2021 bid, losing by just 3 percentage points despite little national support. And his state has clearly shifted a bit to the right in recent years: President Trump lost New Jersey by less than 6 points last fall, a 10-point improvement over 2020 and the best showing for a GOP presidential nominee in the state in more than three decades.