The technology industry believes in the gospel of original ideas and disruptive innovation. But Kozmo.com, just one of many examples, shows how likely the first mover in a sector is to founder or fail or fall out of favor: Friendster and Myspace were first in social networking, but Facebook eradicated them. Treo and BlackBerry owned the smartphone market until the iPhone stamped them out. Early winners seem obvious and enduring, until they do not.