What the differences in opinion should serve to illustrate is exactly how squishy the notions of AGI, or powerful AI, or superintelligence really are. Developing a “general” intelligence was a core reason DeepMind, OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI were founded. And not even two years ago, these CEOs had fairly similar forecasts that AGI would arrive by the late 2020s. Now the consensus is gone: Not only are the timelines scattered, but the broad agreement on what AGI even is and the immediate value it could provide humanity has been scrubbed away.